The World Meteorological Organization said on 3 July 2026 that El Niño has developed in the tropical Pacific and is expected to strengthen rapidly from July to September, with “high confidence.” More heatwaves and weather extremes are now more likely. The mild, uneventful Tuesday everyone is awaiting is, accordingly, two weeks away.
A warming, with paperwork
According to the WMO’s Global Seasonal Climate Update, strong El Niño conditions should build through the autumn, with sea-surface temperature anomalies expected to exceed 2°C in monitored regions. El Niño typically peaks between November and February and exerts its strongest pull on global temperatures in the year after it begins. WMO scientist Álvaro Silva noted that during El Niño years, global temperatures “normally reach record levels.”
“Already in June we’ve seen record-breaking temperatures in many parts of Europe,” WMO spokesperson Clare Nullis said, citing a new German national record of 41.7°C. “It’s the first week of July, the start of what is traditionally the hottest month of the year.”
The relief that stays scheduled
The agency urged governments to act on its warning to save lives, noting the window for preparedness is narrowing in some regions. Officials confirmed the window for pleasant weather remains open and, in a familiar pattern, closes roughly two weeks after it opens.
Drier-than-average conditions are forecast for parts of the Americas and Southeast Asia, while East Africa may see flooding linked to the Indian Ocean Dipole. Each forecast, analysts noted, is itself two weeks from being conclusively confirmed.
Sources
- El Niño forecast to intensify, increasing likelihood of extreme weather — UN News — verifies the 3 July 2026 WMO statement, rapid July–September development, >2°C anomalies, and the German 41.7°C June record.
- El Niño is forecast to intensify — WMO — verifies the Global Seasonal Climate Update and the “high confidence” outlook for strong El Niño.