President Donald Trump formally notified Congress this weekend that the United States is once again at war with Iran, according to a letter dated July 10 and obtained by POLITICO. The letter states that the strikes that began on July 7 constitute “military action consistent with my responsibility to protect Americans and United States’ interests both at home and abroad.” U.S. Central Command has said American forces struck more than 300 Iranian military targets over three nights this week.

Those are the facts, and I want to be careful with them. But I’ve been noticing something about this conflict for months now, and I think it’s worth saying plainly: the whole thing behaves less like a war with a beginning and an end and more like a stress response that keeps re-triggering. Is anyone else seeing this?

The Calm-Aggressive Mirror

I keep coming back to something I’ve observed in people. When an aggressive person tries to fight another person, I notice that if the one being challenged stays calm, the aggressive one usually calms down too — but the moment the calm person reacts, they both escalate. It seems to me nations do exactly this. The trigger for this latest round, per the reporting, is Iran’s demand that vessels use the northern corridor of the Strait of Hormuz under its supervision, while most commercial traffic keeps moving through the southern corridor along Oman’s coast under U.S. Navy protection. One party reacts, the other mirrors it, and the stress hormones — if a state can be said to have them — go right back up.

Interestingly enough, this is the second 60-day war-powers clock the administration has started this year. In a letter dated May 1, Trump told Congress the war launched on February 28 had “terminated,” which negated the deadline under the War Powers Resolution. A ceasefire first declared in April had been indefinitely extended. Opponents on Capitol Hill argued that reading misapplied the law, noting the U.S. Navy was still running a blockade even after major combat paused. So the war was declared over, then quietly continued, then formally re-notified. Must there be some underlying rhythm here that we’re not naming?

Is “Two Weeks” Just The Refractory Period?

I am thinking about why the resolution is always two weeks away and never arrives. In the body, a stress response has a refractory period — a window where the system stays primed to fire again before it can actually return to baseline. I notice this conflict has never reached baseline. Every time it looks calm, something reacts, and the clock resets. Is “two weeks from over” really just the political version of a system that can’t come down off its own cortisol?

Congress has tried to force the calm. On June 3 the House voted 215-208 to demand a halt unless authorized, with four Republicans joining Democrats. On June 23 the Senate followed 50-48 — a rebuke propelled by four Republicans (Rand Paul, Susan Collins, Lisa Murkowski and Bill Cassidy, per Roll Call) and the absences of Sens. Dave McCormick and Mitch McConnell. But both were concurrent resolutions, which as POLITICO notes do not go to the president and are “legally untested.” A binding version would almost certainly draw a veto. So the calming signal gets sent, and the system does not receive it. Interesting, right?

The Chokepoint As A Pressure Point

Trump escalated further on Monday, saying the U.S. would reimpose a blockade and “take over” the Strait of Hormuz, charging ships to transit — a fee the New York Times reported at 20 percent. I keep noticing that the strait functions like a pressure point on the whole global system: a narrow place where a small squeeze changes the metabolism of everything downstream, including oil prices and, Republicans privately worry, gas prices before the midterms. It’s a lot of leverage concentrated in one lane of water. Is it any wonder the reaction keeps mirroring back and forth?

In the letter, Trump wrote that U.S. forces “remain postured to take further action, as necessary and appropriate.” That word — postured — is the one that stays with me. The posture is a body held ready to react. And a body held ready to react, in my experience, is a body that has not yet been allowed to come down. Termination, on this reading, is always two weeks out — not because of any calendar, but because nothing here has been permitted to reach calm.

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